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After China, Trump trade wrath likely to find new targets

Business

Paris, France |

Governments across the world breathed a collective sigh of relief when the US on Wednesday signed a partial trade deal with China, but analysts predict that the pact frees President Donald Trump up for new trade war fronts, notably with the EU and emerging economies.

"This deal may cause short-term relief, but it's just a stage," said Sylvain Broyer, European chief economist at Standard and Poor's, calling it "the tip of the iceberg" of global trade tensions.

"Trade tensions could move on, and Europe could find itself at the centre of the debate," he said.

EU officials remember only too well the tariffs the World Trade Organization (WTO) allowed Washington to slap on European products in retaliation for rule-breaking subsidies paid to the Airbus aircraft maker.

Another reminder of Trump's willingness to weaponise trade came Thursday when Germany's defence minister confirmed a report that the US was threatening to impose a 25 percent tariff on EU car exports if European governments continued to back the Iran nuclear deal.

- Stuck in the middle? -

"The question is now how the US behaves towards towards Europe," said Johan Bjerkem, an analyst at the European Policy Centre in Brussels.

The trade deal between China and the United States is "a good thing", said Evelyn Herrmann, director at BofA Research, "but there are plenty of other things going on that we can't ignore".

A visit to Washington by EU trade chief Phil Hogan just as the US and China signed their truce could be seen as an early attempt to head off any coming transatlantic tensions, analysts said.

"Everyone is pleased that we've emerged from a logic of escalation, but we don't yet know what the impact will be," one EU source said. "After the (US-China) deal we must make sure that the EU does not find itself stuck in the middle."

The most likely trigger for any future trade moves against the EU is a tax on the revenues of internet giants decided last year by France, that the Trump administration sees as discriminatory, analysts said.

"If the US administration decides to take trade measures against France, and therefore against the EU, this would turn into an international question," said one French finance ministry source.

"The EU would defend its rights in a determined and proportionate way against American measures that would be illegal in the eyes of the WTO."

- The price of peace -

There is every chance that emerging economies could get caught up in new international trade tensions, said Gareth Leather at Capital Economics.

"Last year, President Trump called Vietnam 'almost the single worst abuser of everybody' and threatened tariffs unless more was done to reduce its bilateral trade deficit," Leather said.

Thailand was also drawing Washington's unwanted attention, he said, and is in danger of being labelled a "currency manipulator" to be punished with trade measures, just like China was previously, he said.

Emerging countries must now also fear the consequences of a Chinese commitment to buy $200 billion worth of additional US products over the next two years, as Beijing is now likely to cancel farm contracts with countries like Brazil and buy American instead.

"The deal could have negative trade consequences for Brazilian farm product exports to China," said Pedro da Motta, head of the Cindes think tank, singling out soy beans. "The same sectors that benefitted from the trade war may be the ones paying the price for peace," he told AFP.

Brian Coulton, chief economist at Fitch Ratings, cautioned that implementation of the deal and its impact on the rest of the world were still uncertain.

"Its full impact will depend on how the deal is implemented, including whether China can meet its commitment to dramatically increase imports from the US, as well as possible trade diversion effects on other exporting economies," Coulton said.

bur-arz/jh/ach

EU announces strict 5G rules, but no Huawei ban

Innovations

Brussels, Belgium | EU countries could ban telecoms operators deemed a security risk from critical parts of 5G infrastructure under guidelines issued Wednesday, amid US pressure to shut out Chinese giant Huawei.

The EU plan, which closely mirrors rules set out Tuesday by Britain allowing a limited role for Huawei, stops short of barring the company from the next-generation communications network designed for near-instantaneous data transfers.

It leaves member states with the responsibility to ensure the safe rollout of 5G and warns them to screen operators carefully, saying security of the network will be critically important for the entire EU.

The so-called "toolbox" outlined by the European Commission avoids naming Huawei and does not call for an outright ban on any supplier.

But it urges countries to "assess the risk profile of suppliers (and)... apply relevant restrictions for suppliers considered to be high risk" accordingly, including shutting them out of "key assets defined as critical and sensitive".

It also recommends EU states avoid "major dependency on a single supplier" and "dependency on suppliers considered to be high risk".

The guidelines are the fruit of months of agonising within the EU, which has struggled to find a middle way to balance Huawei's dominance in the 5G sector with the security concerns pressed by Washington.

Any bans on Huawei will now ultimately be up to individual member states, but the commission's middle road recommendations give cover to European capitals to resist pleas from Washington.

Huawei welcomed the guidelines, saying they would allow it to continue playing a role in Europe's 5G rollout.

"This non-biased and fact-based approach towards 5G security allows Europe to have a more secure and faster 5G network," the company said in a statement.

"Huawei has been present in Europe for almost 20 years and has a proven track record with regard to security. We will continue to work with European governments and industry to develop common standards to strengthen the security and reliability of the network."

Thierry Breton, the EU commissioner for the single market, said the bloc would not target any company, stressing that the new system was based on "objective criteria".

"We in Europe accept everyone but we have rules -- these rules are clear and exacting," he told reporters.

- 'No safe option' -

London's announcement on Tuesday of a limited role for Huawei infuriated Washington, which says the company cannot be trusted with such important infrastructure because it is too close to the Beijing government.

Britain, like the EU, plans to exclude risky operators from "sensitive" locations such as nuclear sites and military bases, but US officials insist there was "no safe option" for Huawei to control any part of the network.

The US has said the possibility of China using its commercial presence to spy on Britain -- or even shut down the network -- could force Washington to stop sharing intelligence with London.

"Our view of Huawei is putting it in your system creates real risk. This is an extension of the Chinese Communist Party with a legal requirement to hand over information to the Chinese Community Party," US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Wednesday during a visit to London.

"We'll evaluate what the United Kingdom did.... But our view is we should have Western systems with Western rules and American information should only pass across a trusted network. We'll make sure we do that."

Huawei is widely viewed as providing the most advanced alternative for super-fast data transfers behind technologies such as self-driving cars and remotely operated factory robots.

Along with European telecom companies Nokia and Ericsson, it is one of the few suppliers capable of building 5G networks.

The commission warned that 5G will offer "more potential entry points" for cyber attacks -- a growing threat as more and more critical services such as hospitals and power grids depend on data networks.

"5G will be a ground-breaking technology but it cannot come at the expense of the security of our internal market," commission vice-president Margaritis Schinas said in a statement.

"The toolbox is an important step in what must be a continuous effort in the EU's collective work to better protect our critical infrastructures."

Doubts about Huawei come amid a more general anxiety about Beijing's growing presence in the EU, where a growing number of countries in the east are opening the door to Chinese investment in infrastructure.

With the job of vetting prospective 5G suppliers left to member states, there will be questions about whether all have the capacity or political willingness to carry out the job thoroughly, particularly if it might involve embarrassing a major partner such as China.

pdw/klm

French mountaineering military forces train around Chamonix

Travel

Egypt village turns a profit on used tyres

Travel

Mit El Harun, Egypt | Residents of the Egyptian village of Mit al-Harun have for decades eked out a living by recycling old tyres into baskets, landscaping materials and alternative fuels.

From early morning, workers covered in soot and dust can be seen sharpening their knives to cut huge tyres stockpiled on the village's roadsides.

"The entire village works on recycling damaged tyres," said 35-year-old Abdelwahab Mohamed outside of his workshop.

"We inherited it from our fathers and grandfathers."

The small Nile Delta village, some 70 kilometres (43 miles) north of Cairo, has gained a reputation as Egypt's top rubber recycling hub.

Dealers collect used tyres from across the country, delivering them to Mit al-Harun in huge trucks.

Mohamed said prices per tyre go up to around 70 Egyptian pounds (four dollars).

"We cut the tyres here and pull out material including wire rings, which are collected by steel and iron factories to be recycled," he said.

"Tyre rubber is often chopped into small pieces to be used by cement factories as an energy source" -- an alternative to low-grade mazut fuel oil.

Other parts are recycled into mulch for playgrounds, he added.

Mohamed said his work has grown unstable over the years, especially since the 2011 uprising that unseated longtime dictator Hosni Mubara and triggered years of political and economic turmoil.

"There are days with plenty of work and others with little to none," he said.

At another workshop, 43-year-old Mostafa Azab fashions baskets out of tyres from trucks, tractors and industrial vehicles.

"We cut the tyre in half, then we split its inner layers using a winch, before shaping them into baskets and hammering nails around the edges to make them hold," said Azab.

The heavy-duty baskets are often used by farmers, gardeners and labourers, he said.

Azab's workshop, with a handful of workers, processes up to 10 tyres per day, producing between 80-120 baskets.

Azab's brother, Haitham, said the job was "exhausting".

"It requires physical strength to carry around the heavy tyres," he said.

"If we had the option of a more stable occupation, we would have quit this one. But this is our only source of income."

mz/par

Michelin strips star from French culinary beacon Bocuse

Travel

Collonges-au-Mont-d'Or, France | Two years after the death of renowned French chef Paul Bocuse, the Michelin Guide has stripped his flagship restaurant of the coveted three-star ranking it held for half a century, prompting anger and dismay from his culinary peers.

The Auberge du Pont de Collonges, near food-obsessed Lyon in southeast France, was the oldest three-starred restaurant in the world, having held the accolade since 1965.

The Michelin Guide told AFP on Friday that the establishment "remained excellent but no longer at the level of three stars" and will have only two in the 2020 edition of the famous red book dubbed the "bible" of French cuisine.

"Michelin stars have to be earned, not inherited," Michelin Guide boss Gwendal Poullennec told RTL broadcaster.

Bocuse's family and restaurant team said they were "upset" by the decision, and celebrity chef Marc Veyrat, who recently sued the Michelin Guide over a lost third star, described the move as "pathetic".

The chef's son Jerome Bocuse told RTL it was a "heavy blow" the consequences of which would be "difficult to measure".

Even President Emmanuel Macron weighed in, telling RTL: "I want to spare a thought for what his family represents, for all those he trained, and that cannot take away from the unique role of Paul Bocuse in French gastronomy."

The Bocuse d'Or organisation, which manages the annual cooking competition he created, also greeted the announcement with "sadness" and expressed its "unwavering support" for the restaurant.

"Monsieur Paul", as Bocuse was known, died aged 91 on January 20, 2018, after a long battle with Parkinson's disease.

Nicknamed the "pope" of French cuisine, he was one of the country's most celebrated chefs, helping shake up the food world in the 1970s with the lighter fare of the Nouvelle Cuisine revolution, and introduce the notion of culinary celebrity.

- 'I love butter, cream, wine' -

Even before Bocuse's death, some critics had commented that the restaurant was no longer quite up to scratch.

But Michelin's decision, a year after controversially stripping Veyrat of his third star, immediately stirred discontent.

Food critic Perico Legasse told BFM news channel the guide had committed an "irreparable" error in what he called its quest to create media hype.

Veyrat said he had "lost faith" in a new generation of Michelin editors he accuses of trying to make a name for themselves by taking down the giants of French cuisine.

"I am sad for the team that took up the torch at Collonges," tweeted three-starred chef Georges Blanc, while Lyon Mayor Gerard Collomb spoke of his "immense disappointment".

Two other Lyon restaurants each lost a Michelin star in 2019.

The setback for the Auberge du Pont de Collonges comes despite efforts to modernise its look and menu, pursuing a philosophy management describes as "tradition in motion".

"The chefs have reworked the dishes. They have been refining them for more than a year, evolving them while retaining their original DNA and taste," manager Vincent Le Roux recently told a regional newspaper.

The restaurant is scheduled to reopen on January 24 after three weeks of renovations.

Bocuse was himself a devotee of traditional cuisine. "I love butter, cream, wine" he once said, "not peas cut into quarters".

- Three-star pressure -

Gastronomy publication Atabula was a lone voice in supporting the Michelin move, which it described as a much-needed "revolution" in an industry held back by decades of inertia.

According to Michelin, restaurants are selected on four criteria: the quality of the products, the expertise of the chef, the originality of the dishes and consistency throughout the meal and across seasons.

But critics say the process has rendered Michelin stars untenable as more and more diners baulk at spending a fortune on a meal.

A handful of French restaurateurs have in recent years relinquished their prized three-star status because of the stress of being judged by Michelin inspectors.

The 2003 suicide of three-star chef Bernard Loiseau was linked, among other reasons, to speculation that his restaurant was about to lose its three-star status.

may-rh/mlr/dl/spm

French lab creates 3D reproduction of 18th century flute

Innovations

Re-enactment of the battle of Nantwich, from the English Civil War in 1644

Travel

Icon of US road, RVs show economy's strength in election year

Business

LAGRANGE, UNITED STATES-The six or seven vehicles that come off the assembly line each day at Riverside plant in Indiana's Amish country look more like houses than cars, with workers installing wooden roofs and fiberglass insulation before applying coats of gleaming white paint.

For decades, recreational vehicles have been icons of the American road: homes-on-the-go furnished with beds, showers, kitchens and even television dens that offer families the freedom to roam and see the vast country.

In an election year, RVs tell an additional story. Experts consider them bellwethers of the economy, dream-buys for Americans who only shell out the tens of thousands of dollars when they feel comfortable.

As the election season opens, a team from AFP traveled (albeit not by RV) from Washington to Iowa, which holds the first presidential nomination contest on February 3, in hopes of feeling the economic and political pulse of the country.

In the northeastern patch of Indiana centered around Elkhart, the verdict from the RV industry appeared to be that the economy -- a key factor in whether President Donald Trump is re-elected -- seems strong, although a notch less than recently.

"A lot of people think that RVs are an economic indicator and in many ways it is, because a recreational vehicle is not a have-to-have, it's a want-to-have," said Don Clark, CEO of Grand Design, a maker of high-end RVs started in 2012.

Clark said that tariffs, imposed by Trump on steel, aluminum and other materials crucial for manufacturing, have "had an impact" and been an "inconvenience," but the industry nonetheless was braced for its fourth biggest year on record.

- 'Not a bad picture' -

At the RV Hall of Fame museum, whose displays include a 1913 Model-T with a convertible dining table described as the first recreational vehicle, veteran industry watcher Sherman Goldenberg said he expects a dip of six percent in shipments in 2019 from the previous year.

The industry has climbed since the aftermath of the Great Recession in the late 2000s, and "after an eight-year run of growth, at some point it planed out, as all things do," said Goldenberg, publisher of industry magazine RVBusiness.

"Did it plummet? Did it dive? No, it didn't," he said. "It's not a bad picture, but no, we're not breaking records."

He said that younger people -- who have coined terms such as "glamping" for high-end camping -- have helped revitalize an industry dominated by older people.

Goldenberg, who estimated shipments of around 400,000 RVs in 2019, said one factor was manufacturers slowing down to keep pace with supply after making more RVs than could be sold in previous years.

Eric Sims, an economist at the University of Notre Dame in nearby South Bend, said that past overproduction was an issue -- but may be exaggerated by the industry.

"There's some of that going on, but I think that there is also a general slowing of demand for these kinds of vehicles in the economy," Sims said.

"I would characterize the RV industry as still doing well," he said. "Relative to where things were three or four years ago, things have cooled off a little."

- Hard-working Amish -

Production at the RV factories often begins before dawn to accommodate the farming schedule of the Amish, who make up much of the workforce even though they cannot drive motorized vehicles themselves.

Men sporting suspenders and beards, and women wearing plain dresses and white "kapp" headpieces, punched out their shifts using time clocks before some left on bicycle.

Mervin Lehman, general manager at Riverside, where up to 80 percent of labor is Amish, said that the workers delighted the company.

"The ethic of coming to work every day, good workmanship, that kind of culture, is what they bring," he said.

"On the flipside, it's a very good, lucrative paying job. With an eighth-grade education, there is nowhere else you can go to earn the money that this community can," he said, referring to the Amish custom of ending school at the start of their teenage years.

While the Amish are forbidden from buying RVs, for other Americans, the main question is cost.

Keith Hess of Wisconsin, visiting the RV Hall of Fame with his wife of 38 years, said he expected to be able to buy a long-sought $100,000 unit in five years.

"We would like to take a month or two to travel the West Coast to Alaska, just being able to be self-sufficient as you travel, to stop and have a meal or to pull off and use the bathroom," he said.

"We are very fortunate in North America that we can drive to a lot of places," he said. "You can see a lot of beautiful sites that God has created for us."

sct/to

Home industry in the village of Lekkapin

Travel

Cultural Heritage Hatajo de Negritos

Travel

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The Foreign Post is the newspaper of the International Community in the Philippines, published for foreign residents, Internationally-oriented Filipinos, and visitors to the country. It is written and edited to inform, to entertain, occasionally to educate, to provide a forum for international thinkers.